PC (Energy Reporters)

As the US-Israel-Iran conflict enters its third week with no signs of de-escalation, attention is shifting from oil supplies to another critical artery: the world’s undersea internet infrastructure. Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz with sea mines and threats against passing vessels, halting commercial shipping and creating a no-go zone for repair operations. Combined with renewed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea-driven by solidarity with Iran-this dual chokepoint crisis threatens the subsea fiber-optic cables that carry the vast majority of global data traffic.

While a complete global internet “shutdown” remains unlikely due to built-in redundancies, experts warn that damage to these cables could trigger severe regional slowdowns, higher latency, and prolonged outages-particularly affecting Gulf nations, India, Europe-to-Asia connections, and critical systems like banking, cloud services, and Al infrastructure.

A Digital Choke point in Shallow Waters

The Strait of Hormuz, already infamous as the world’s primary energy choke point, is also a vital digital corridor. At its narrowest point-roughly 33 km wide and only about 200 feet deep-multiple submarine cables lie relatively exposed on the seabed, vulnerable to accidental damage from ship anchors, naval activity, mines, or even deliberate sabotage.

According to industry sources like Tele geography, active cables traversing or landing near the Persian Gulf include AAE-1, FALCON, Gulf Bridge International Cable System, and Tata-TGN Gulf. These systems support direct international connectivity for countries in the region, including India’s overseas data links. In the Red Sea, at least 17 cables route traffic between Europe, Asia, and Africa, amplifying the risk when both passages are simultaneously disrupted.

The current blockade-declared by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on March 3-has stranded hundreds of ships, damaged tankers, and forced shipping lines to halt operations. Repair vessels, essential for fixing severed cables, cannot safely enter these conflict zones. As Alan Mauldin of Tele geography noted, “Cable ships are not going to operate in areas where there is active military operations happening-it’s too risky.” What might normally take days to repair could now stretch into weeks or months.

Potential Impacts: Slowdowns, Not Total Blackouts

Global internet architecture features extensive redundancies, allowing traffic to reroute via longer alternate paths-such as around Africa-if key routes fail. A full global blackout is improbable. However, simultaneous disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea would force rerouting on a massive scale, leading to significant latency increases and degraded performance for international services.
Severe impacts on Gulf countries, where major tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google have invested billions in data centers to support Al and cloud computing. Notable effects on India, which routes about a third of its westbound international traffic through these paths. Risks to global financial networks (e.g., SWIFT), stock markets, hospitals, and trade operations reliant on real-time data. Internet analyst Doug Madory of Kentik described the scenario as potentially “globally disruptive,” especially given the unprecedented closure of both choke points.

Accidental Damage as Primary Threat

Experts emphasize that deliberate targeting of cables by Iran is possible but less likely than accidental severance-such as from dragging anchors of vessels evading attacks or navigating mine-infested waters. The shallow depths make cables susceptible even to minor incidents. Ongoing military operations, including sunk Iranian naval assets and reported underwater teams, heighten the danger.

Ongoing projects, like Meta’s 2Africa “Pearls” extension connecting Oman, UAE, Qatar, and beyond to India, have been suspended under force majeure clauses due to security risks. Gulf nations are now accelerating alternative overland fiber routes through Iraq, Syria, or East Africa to reduce future dependence on these vulnerable maritime paths. For now, the cables remain operational, and no major disruptions have been reported. Yet with mines deployed, attacks continuing, and repair ships sidelined, the risk to global connectivity has reached unprecedented levels. As the war intensifies-
targeting oil installations and expanding hostilities-the fragile balance between energy security and digital stability hangs in the balance, with ripple effects potentially felt worldwide.