PC: (The Economic Times)
Russia Keeps Indian Oil Export Figures Secret Citing “III-Wishers” as Geopolitical Tensions Surge
In a move underscoring the shadowy dynamics of global energy trade amid escalating conflict in West Asia, Russia has refused to disclose specific data on its crude oil exports to India. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov bluntly stated that Moscow will not provide quantitative details, citing “too many ill-wishers” who could exploit such information. Peskov’s comments came in response to Indian media reports suggesting Russia could deliver up to 22 million barrels of crude in a single week. He emphasized, “No, of course, we’re not going to provide any quantitative data for obvious reasons. That’s the first thing. There are too many ill-wishers.”
The secrecy follows Russian state television broadcasting maps showing multiple tankers en route from the Arabian Sea to the Bay of Bengal, heading toward Indian refineries on the east coast. This surge in shipments aligns with Russia’s readiness to ramp up supplies to major buyers like India and China. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak recently affirmed that Moscow is prepared to increase crude deliveries to both nations, especially as the ongoing war disrupts traditional routes.
The backdrop is a severe disruption in global oil flows triggered by the intensifying conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. Iran’s retaliatory actions, including strikes and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a critical chokepoint for about 20% of the world’s oil – have forced importers to seek alternatives. This has led to a notable redirection of Russian crude toward India, with reports indicating millions of barrels already en route or positioned nearby.
Adding another layer, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a temporary 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea or in transit. The measure aims to ease immediate supply pressures without providing “significant financial benefit” to Russia, according to US officials. It comes as a pragmatic stop-gap amid the chaos, even as broader Western sanctions and pressures on Russian energy have complicated trade in recent months.
Meanwhile, the conflict shows no signs of abating. President Donald Trump has ruled out any negotiations with Iran absent its “unconditional surrender,” as Israeli strikes continue to target Tehran and Beirut. Iran has responded with missile barrages and attacks on regional assets, heightening fears of prolonged energy market volatility.
Russia’s decision to withhold export figures highlights the strategic sensitivities in play: protecting trade partnerships from external interference while capitalizing on the opportunity to fill the supply gap left by Middle Eastern disruptions.
As India navigates its energy security in this turbulent landscape, the quiet but significant flow of Russian tankers underscores shifting alliances and the enduring pragmatism driving global oil markets.