In the past 17 days, tensions between India and Pakistan have sharply escalated, climbing four rungs on what experts call the ‘escalation ladder’. It all began with the Pahalgam terrorist attack on April 22, followed by Indian airstrikes on May 7 targeting terrorist camps inside Pakistan. In retaliation, Pakistan launched missile and drone attacks on Indian military bases.
This article breaks down where both nations stand in the ongoing conflict, what the escalation ladder is, and what could happen next.
What Is an Escalation Ladder?
The ‘escalation ladder’ is a theoretical framework used in defense and international relations to understand how conflicts progress between two nations. It starts with diplomatic tensions or minor skirmishes and can escalate to full-scale war.
Coined by American military strategist Herman Kahn in his 1965 book “On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios”, the concept originally described 44 rungs of conflict. However, modern experts typically simplify it into seven key stages, ranging from diplomatic protests to nuclear war.
Where Are India and Pakistan on This Ladder Now?
Currently, India and Pakistan are on the 4th step of this escalation ladder. Here’s a look at how the situation has intensified over the past two weeks:
Step 1: Initial Spark – Terrorist Attack
On April 22, terrorists attacked Indian forces in Pahalgam. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri confirmed that Pakistan-backed groups were responsible.
Step 2: Diplomatic and Strategic Responses
On April 23, India took five major actions:
- Reduction in Pakistani diplomatic presence
- Suspension of the Indus Water Treaty
- Closure of the Attari-Wagah border
- Economic sanctions
- International diplomatic outreach
Pakistan mirrored some of these moves.
Step 3: Military Posturing
Following the Pahalgam incident:
- Pakistan increased troop deployment along the border
- Leaders issued nuclear threats
- Both nations conducted missile tests and military exercises
Step 4: Kinetic Military Actions
- On May 7, India carried out airstrikes on nine terrorist camps in PoK and Pakistan.
- On May 8, Pakistan attempted missile and drone strikes on 15 Indian military bases, which were intercepted by India’s S-400 air defense system.
- In retaliation, India destroyed segments of Pakistan’s air defense system.
- Aerial engagements occurred between fighter jets on the night of May 8.
Has War Officially Begun Between India and Pakistan?
Not yet—but we are in a ‘war-like situation’, say military experts.
- Retired Lt. Gen. Rameshwar Roy: “Wars aren’t always declared. Each nation’s reaction determines the next move in the conflict.”
- Retired Air Vice Marshal Om Prakash Tiwari: “Right now, this is not a full-scale war, but a dangerous stage of escalation.”
- Retired Lt. Gen. Sanjay Kulkarni: “India hasn’t initiated war, but Pakistan’s repeated aggression can be seen as acts of war.”
When Is It Considered a Full-Fledged War?
According to the Oxford Dictionary, war is a conflict between two parties involving organized, often prolonged combat.
Carl von Clausewitz, a noted military theorist, defined war as:
“An act of violence intended to compel our opponent to fulfill our will.”
A full-fledged war involves:
- Use of Army, Air Force, and Navy simultaneously
- Large-scale attacks across multiple fronts
- Bombardment of cities and critical infrastructure
In comparison, India’s Kargil conflict in 1999 was considered a limited war, focused solely on regaining strategic positions.
Difference Between a War and a Military Operation
| Aspect | War | Military Operation |
|---|---|---|
| Scale | Nationwide or regional, involving all forces | Targeted, focused missions |
| Purpose | Territorial gain, political change | National security, retaliation |
| Casualties | Includes civilians and military | Aimed to minimize collateral damage |
| Example | 1999 Kargil War | Operation Sindoor (fictional example for this context) |
Operations are typically precise and strategic, while war leads to widespread destruction and civilian displacement.
What Could Happen Next?
If military actions continue and escalate to the 5th step, we may see:
- Mobilization of full armed forces
- Air and naval blockades
- Attacks on strategic infrastructure
- Possible international intervention to de-escalate
Given the nuclear capabilities of both India and Pakistan, escalation control is critical. Any further step could result in massive humanitarian and geopolitical consequences.
Conclusion
The current India-Pakistan standoff has reached a dangerous inflection point. While both nations have avoided a formal declaration of war, actions on the ground suggest an active military engagement phase. The global community watches closely, hoping diplomacy will prevail before the escalation ladder is climbed further