In a significant geopolitical development, India has surpassed Japan to claim the third spot in the 2024 Asia Power Index, underscoring its growing stature as a major force in the region. This achievement highlights India’s dynamic economic growth, youthful population, and expanding influence, marking a shift in the power dynamics of Asia.
The Asia Power Index, published by the Lowy Institute, is a comprehensive annual ranking of nations based on their ability to shape regional and global affairs. India’s rise reflects its strategic potential and ability to exercise influence in Asia and beyond.
Key Factors Driving India’s Rise
- Economic Growth: India’s impressive post-pandemic recovery has solidified its position as a regional powerhouse. A 4.2-point rise in Economic Capability is attributed to robust GDP growth and the country’s massive population, making it the third-largest economy globally in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.
- Future Potential: India’s demographic advantage is becoming increasingly apparent, with its Future Resources score rising by 8.2 points. As China and Japan face aging populations, India’s youthful workforce is set to drive long-term economic expansion, positioning the nation for sustained growth over the next few decades.
- Diplomatic Influence: Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has enhanced its diplomatic standing on the global stage. The country’s non-aligned strategic posture allows it to navigate complex international issues effectively, maintaining relationships across the spectrum of global powers. Ranking 6th in diplomatic dialogues in 2023, India is an active participant in multilateral forums and regional summits, further boosting its international influence.
India’s Geopolitical and Cultural Impact
India’s increasing influence goes beyond economic growth. The nation’s cultural outreach remains strong, bolstered by its global diaspora and cultural exports in the form of cinema, literature, and traditional arts. Furthermore, India’s active participation in regional security dialogues and cooperation initiatives, such as the Quad (involving the US, Japan, and Australia), reflects its growing role in shaping regional security dynamics.
Additionally, defense partnerships are slowly emerging as a new avenue of influence, with deals like the BrahMos missile sale to the Philippines symbolizing India’s entry into the defense export market. While small in scale, such initiatives are indicative of India’s expanding geopolitical ambitions.
India’s Role in the Indo-Pacific
The 2024 Asia Power Index emphasizes India’s importance as a stabilizing force in the Indo-Pacific region. India’s strategic autonomy and diplomatic flexibility make it a pivotal player in balancing the interests of major powers, including China and the United States. The nation’s continued economic and demographic growth will further enhance its influence, making it a key actor in the regional and global order.
Asia Power Index Overview
Launched in 2018, the Asia Power Index assesses the power dynamics of 27 countries across the Asia-Pacific, evaluating their ability to shape and respond to external challenges. The index uses both resource-based and influence-based determinants to provide a comprehensive picture of regional power distribution.
This year’s report saw the inclusion of Timor-Leste, recognizing its growing importance in Southeast Asia. India’s rise in the rankings reflects its ability to convert its material resources into geopolitical influence, positioning it as a formidable player in the international arena.
Measuring Power: Criteria and Parameters
The Asia Power Index evaluates power across eight key indicators:
Resource-Based Determinants:
- Economic Capability: Evaluates GDP, technological sophistication, and global connectivity.
- Military Capability: Measures defense spending, weapon systems, and military strength.
- Resilience: Assesses internal stability, institutional robustness, and resource security.
- Future Resources: Projects future economic, military, and demographic strength up to 2035.
Influence-Based Determinants:
- Economic Relationships: Measures trade, investment, and economic diplomacy.
- Defense Networks: Evaluates the strength of alliances and military cooperation.
- Diplomatic Influence: Assesses foreign policy reach, multilateral participation, and diplomatic engagements.
- Cultural Influence: Measures a nation’s ability to shape global opinion through culture, media, and diaspora.
Outlook for India
India’s rise to the third position in the Asia Power Index reflects its growing ability to shape regional dynamics and exert influence on the global stage. With continued economic growth, a burgeoning workforce, and strategic diplomatic initiatives, India is poised to further consolidate its position as a leading power in the coming years.