The 2025 World Trade Report, released by the World Trade Organization (WTO), explores how artificial intelligence (AI) could significantly reshape global trade and economic development by 2040. According to the report, AI-driven productivity gains and lower trade costs could lead to a nearly 40% increase in the value of cross-border trade.
However, realizing this potential will require targeted policies to bridge the digital divide and ensure that growth is inclusive and equitable across economies.
AI Could Boost Trade by Up to 37% and Global GDP by 13%
The report projects that AI could raise global trade by 34–37% and global GDP by 12–13% by 2040. These gains depend heavily on the pace of AI adoption and improvements in digital infrastructure, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Economies that successfully close the digital gap with high-income nations and integrate AI technologies stand to benefit the most.
Trade in AI-Enabling Goods Key to Growth
In 2023, trade in AI-enabling goods—such as semiconductors, raw materials, and intermediate inputs—reached USD 2.3 trillion. Ensuring access to these goods is critical for enabling AI adoption and supporting economic growth. The report suggests that if developing economies halve their digital infrastructure gap and embrace AI, average incomes could rise by 14–15%.
Barriers to AI Trade Remain High
Despite its potential, access to AI technologies remains uneven. In some low-income countries, tariffs on AI-related goods reach as high as 45%. Moreover, quantitative restrictions on AI products have surged from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, creating significant obstacles to equitable AI adoption and limiting trade expansion.
Investing in Education and Workforce Skills
To prevent widening inequality within countries, the report emphasizes the importance of investments in education and skills development. As AI reshapes labour markets, adaptive workforce policies are needed to support those affected and to ensure that more people can participate in and benefit from AI-driven economic growth.
WTO’s Role in Supporting Inclusive AI Trade
The WTO serves as a key platform for international dialogue on AI and trade policy. Since 2012, over 80 trade concerns related to AI have been raised by members. The WTO continues to promote adherence to frameworks such as the Information Technology Agreement (ITA) and the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), which support wider access to AI technologies and services.
Call for Open, Predictable Trade Policies
The report underscores the importance of an open and predictable global trade environment to maximize AI’s benefits. Reducing trade barriers and ensuring regulatory certainty will encourage investment, foster innovation, and help ensure that the benefits of AI are shared across all economies, especially developing ones.