The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has outlined a comprehensive three-step plan aimed at protecting India’s trade interests with the United States, as both countries move toward renewed negotiations on bilateral trade. The proposal focuses on reducing exposure to U.S. sanctions, restoring tariff parity, and reviving balanced trade talks between the two economies.
Step 1: Halting Russian Oil Imports Under Sanctions
The GTRI report recommends that India immediately stop importing crude oil from Russian companies Rosneft and Lukoil, both of which are under U.S. sanctions and account for over half of Russia’s total oil output.
According to the think tank, continuing to purchase oil from these entities could trigger secondary sanctions that may:
- Restrict India’s access to the SWIFT global payment system,
- Limit U.S. dollar settlements, and
- Disrupt port and banking operations essential for trade.
GTRI warns that the impact of potential sanctions could be far more severe than the effect of current tariffs, posing a direct risk to India’s global trade and financial stability.
Step 2: Seeking Withdrawal of Punitive U.S. Tariffs
After halting imports from sanctioned Russian entities, GTRI advises India to demand withdrawal of the 25% “Russian oil” tariff imposed by Washington in July 2025. This duty raised India’s overall tariff burden in the U.S. to 50%, severely affecting export competitiveness. Between May and September 2025, India’s exports to the U.S. reportedly fell by 37% due to higher trade costs.
Removing the punitive tariff could cut the duty burden in half and help restore export growth momentum, particularly for key sectors such as textiles, engineering goods, and electronics.
Step 3: Resuming Trade Talks on Balanced Terms
The final step in GTRI’s roadmap calls for India to resume bilateral trade negotiations with the U.S. only after tariff normalization. The think tank suggests that India should pursue tariff parity similar to other major trading partners, targeting an average duty rate of 15%. It also recommends seeking duty-free access for high-priority sectors including:
- Textiles and garments
- Pharmaceuticals
- Gems and jewellery
Such measures, the report notes, would enhance India’s competitiveness in the American market while ensuring strategic autonomy in trade policy.
Key Facts
- Rosneft and Lukoil produce around 57% of Russia’s crude oil.
- The U.S. imposed a 25% “Russian oil” tariff on July 31, 2025.
- India’s exports to the U.S. dropped by 37% between May and September 2025.
- GTRI’s three-step plan: Stop Russian oil imports → Remove U.S. tariffs → Restart fair trade talks.
Prospects of a Renewed Trade Agreement
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal recently confirmed that India–U.S. trade negotiations have reached an advanced stage. According to government sources, the proposed framework may reduce tariffs on Indian exports from 50% to 15% in exchange for India scaling down Russian oil purchases and expanding U.S. energy imports.
With both nations expressing intent to rebuild trust and economic ties, GTRI’s three-step plan presents a strategic roadmap to rebalance trade relations and safeguard India’s economic interests while preserving its policy independence.