The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) by India has triggered a significant shift in the already tense relations between India and Pakistan, with wide-ranging economic, agricultural, and humanitarian implications for the neighboring nation.
Background of the Indus Water Treaty
The Indus Water Treaty was signed on September 19, 1960, between India and Pakistan, with the World Bank as a broker. The agreement divided the use of six rivers in the Indus Basin:
- India received exclusive rights over the eastern rivers – Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
- Pakistan was allocated the western rivers – Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
The treaty aimed to prevent water disputes and ensure smooth agricultural development in both countries. Despite several conflicts and wars, including the 1965, 1971, and 1999 Kargil wars, India continued to honor the treaty.
Rationale Behind the Suspension
India has maintained that it has respected the treaty in both letter and spirit, even during periods of military and diplomatic hostility. However, growing frustration over Pakistan’s continued support for cross-border terrorism has led India to reconsider its stance.
The suspension of water flow from the western rivers is seen as a strategic and diplomatic response to repeated acts of terror emanating from Pakistan.
Impacts on Pakistan
The move is likely to trigger severe repercussions in Pakistan:
- Agriculture Crisis: Over 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. Reduced water flow could devastate crop production, leading to food insecurity.
- Power Generation Hit: Many of Pakistan’s hydropower projects and dams rely on these rivers. A decline in water levels could result in power shortages, further straining the economy and industrial activity.
- Worsening Economy: Disruptions in agriculture and power sectors will likely weaken Pakistan’s economic fabric, pushing inflation and unemployment higher.
Border Measures and Trade Disruptions
In a related development, the Attari check post, one of the limited routes for physical movement between India and Pakistan, has also been closed. Pakistani citizens currently in India have been asked to return by May 1, after which the route will be sealed.
This closure will halt the movement of people and small-scale trade, impacting artisans and small traders on both sides. Items such as rock salt, leather goods, Multani mitti, copperware, wool, and lime—previously exchanged via limited routes—will no longer be traded.
It is worth noting that formal bilateral trade between the two countries has been suspended since 2019, following India’s decision to abrogate Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir. Since then, any trade has occurred indirectly through third countries.
Conclusion
The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty marks a significant escalation in Indo-Pak tensions, with India taking a hard line on national security and counter-terrorism. While the move is meant to pressure Pakistan diplomatically, it may also deepen the humanitarian crisis in the neighboring country, affecting millions dependent on water and power sourced from the Indus system.