Wealth has always been a relative concept. Generations ago, everyday Americans fantasized about becoming millionaires. Today, millionaires are practically everyday Americans—in 2023, there were close to 22 million of them in the U.S. alone. Now, you need to be a billionaire to garner some real attention.
The Legacy of John D. Rockefeller
John D. Rockefeller is often cited as the world’s first billionaire, achieving that status in 1916 through his ownership of Standard Oil. This milestone, reached over a century ago, marked the beginning of an era where wealth multiplied exponentially. Today, the richest individuals in the world boast fortunes nearing $150 billion each. This prompts the intriguing question: how long will it take before the world sees its first trillionaire?
The Scale of Wealth Today
The world today has a large supply of millionaires and more than 1,000 billionaires, but the first trillionaire has yet to emerge. This elusive title could be claimed by someone from today’s wealthiest ranks or by an unknown innovator with a trillion-dollar idea. A trillion dollars is a staggering sum, surpassing the gross domestic product of many nations.
The Wealth Multiplication Challenge
Wealth begets wealth, with rich individuals having access to lucrative investment opportunities often unavailable to the general public. However, there comes a point where the sheer volume of one’s wealth becomes a hindrance to achieving high returns. Doubling a $100 billion stake requires opportunities on the scale of entire nations, which are rare. When investors like Warren Buffett speak of difficulty finding suitable opportunities for their cash, it’s a reflection of the immense challenge posed by managing vast fortunes.
Government policies also play a significant role. The monopolistic and “robber baron” activities that created the world’s first self-made multimillionaires in the 1800s are now largely illegal. Additionally, higher taxes and fewer loopholes make the path to becoming hyper-rich more arduous than ever before.
The Appetite for Risk
Psychology also influences the pursuit of extreme wealth. Wealthy individuals often find it challenging to remain as hungry and aggressive as they were when they had less to lose. Consider billionaires like John Paulson, George Soros, and Jim Simons, who have shown comfort with high leverage in investing. However, it’s hard to imagine any of them taking on the risk required to become a trillionaire today. The question arises: what could someone buy with $1 trillion that isn’t already accessible at $1 billion, and is it worth risking it all?
Potential Candidates for the Trillionaire Club
The first trillionaire may or may not come from the current ranks of the world’s richest people, although younger billionaires have better odds. Jeff Bezos, at 60, has a net worth of $194 billion. Elon Musk, age 52, is worth $221 billion. Mark Zuckerberg, founder of Meta (formerly Facebook), is only 39 and reportedly worth around $177 billion. If Zuckerberg can grow his wealth by 10% annually, excluding taxes, he could be a trillionaire before his 65th birthday. However, Meta would need to grow to 10 times the current size of ExxonMobil to achieve this.
An off-the-board candidate could be Craig Venter, the founder of Celera Genomics. Venter’s work in synthetic biology and clean fuels could potentially lead to breakthroughs worth trillions, though this remains speculative.
Government Leaders and Petrostate Rulers
For this discussion, government leaders and dictators are excluded, though it’s not unthinkable that an individual or family ruling a petrostate could amass a trillion-dollar fortune based on their nation’s natural resources.
The Magnitude of a Trillion Dollars
A trillion dollars equals 1,000 billion dollars or 1,000,000 million dollars. It’s a mind-boggling amount, roughly equivalent to the GDP of nations like the Netherlands or Indonesia. With a trillion dollars, one could buy all the shares of ExxonMobil, McDonald’s, and Coca-Cola—and still have billions left over.
The Path Forward
Beyond the handful of individuals mentioned here, it is anyone’s guess who will be the first to amass $1 trillion in wealth or how soon that might happen. Inflation might make the goal slightly easier, but it remains a distant and monumental achievement.
Summing Up
The journey from the world’s first billionaire, John D. Rockefeller, to the potential first trillionaire is a testament to the ever-evolving landscape of wealth. While the race to $1 trillion continues, it highlights the extraordinary scale of modern fortunes and the relentless pursuit of new frontiers in wealth creation.