With just a few days left before the Academy Awards, several key races are tightening. Film critics Nicholas Barber and Caryn James share their final predictions on who might take home the coveted trophies.
1. Best Picture
The Best Picture race usually narrows down to two clear frontrunners by Oscar night — think Moonlight vs La La Land or CODA vs The Power of the Dog. Earlier in the season, Hamnet and One Battle After Another appeared to dominate after winning Golden Globes for Best Drama and Best Musical/Comedy respectively. But the momentum has shifted.
Now, Sinners, directed by Ryan Coogler, has surged ahead after major wins at the BAFTAs and the SAG Awards. The vampire thriller continues to gain industry goodwill.
Still, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another remains a strong contender — a bold and distinctive film tackling tensions between undocumented immigrants and US law enforcement.
Despite controversy over its depiction of Black women, it has dominated awards season. But the final stretch may see Sinners overtake it at the finish line.
2. Best Director
Despite 14 nominations, Paul Thomas Anderson has never won an Oscar. This year could finally change that. His work on One Battle After Another blends political commentary, comedy, action and emotional storytelling into one seamless film. The director has already won the BAFTA and the Directors Guild Award, making him the overwhelming favourite. If the film wins Best Picture as well, Anderson could walk away with multiple Oscars in one night.
3. Best Actress
The Best Actress race has seemed almost settled since Jessie Buckley premiered in Hamnet at the Telluride Film Festival. Her intense portrayal of Shakespeare’s wife has dominated the awards conversation for months, making her the clear favourite. While critics have praised performances from Rose Byrne, Renate Reinsve, and Emma Stone, Buckley’s powerful screen presence makes her the likely winner.
4. Best Actor
At the start of awards season, Timothée Chalamet seemed destined to win for Marty Supreme. But the race has shifted dramatically. Michael B. Jordan has surged ahead thanks to his dynamic dual performance as identical twins in Sinners. Jordan recently won the SAG Award, often considered the strongest predictor of the Oscar winner. Still, critics also admire Wagner Moura for his understated performance in The Secret Agent.
5. Best Supporting Actor
Sean Penn delivers a flamboyant performance in One Battle After Another, transforming himself into the eccentric villain Col Lockjaw. However, his biggest competition is Stellan Skarsgård, who plays a brilliant but egotistical film director in Sentimental Value. Penn already has two Oscars, while Skarsgård has none — which may tilt Academy voters in his favour.
6. Best Supporting Actress
This category has been one of the most unpredictable. Early favourite Amy Madigan (Weapons) faces strong competition from Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another. Taylor’s breakout performance has generated significant buzz, but Wunmi Mosaku, who won the BAFTA for Sinners, could also cause an upset.
7. Best Original Screenplay
With a record 16 Oscar nominations, Sinners is expected to win several awards. One of the strongest possibilities is Best Original Screenplay for Ryan Coogler, whose script blends horror, gangster drama and musical elements. The film celebrates African American music as a powerful cultural force, making it one of the year’s most original screenplays.
8. Best Adapted Screenplay
The main contenders are Hamnet and One Battle After Another. Paul Thomas Anderson loosely adapted the story from Vineland, reshaping it into a fast-paced cinematic narrative filled with modern political commentary.
After winning the BAFTA and Golden Globe, the film is widely expected to win the Oscar.
9. Best Animated Feature
The likely winner is KPop Demon Hunters. The film combines the world of K-pop with supernatural action, following a girl group battling monsters to save humanity. Its vibrant visuals, catchy music and global popularity have made it a standout animated hit.
10. Best International Film
The frontrunners are The Secret Agent from Brazil and Sentimental Value from Norway. While The Secret Agent is a gripping political thriller starring Wagner Moura, the emotional family drama Sentimental Value, directed by Joachim Trier, has strong support with nine nominations. Its emotional depth may ultimately give it the edge.
The 98th Academy Awards will take place on 15 March, when Hollywood will finally reveal this year’s biggest winners